Folks, it wouldn’t be Tuesday without a massive report on the outlook for tablet computing.
And so, this morning, Jefferies & Co. analyst Peter Misek offers a 115-page note in which he goes through the findings of a survey of 1,400 consumers in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and Asia.
Misek cut his 2011 unit shipment outlook for tablets to 70 million units from 100 million units because he now has a somewhat less enthusiastic view of tablets based on Google’s (GOOG) “Android” operating system, given that the “Honeycomb” version of Android “needed polishing” and given that he believes Android tablets are priced too high to compete with Apple’s (AAPL) iPad and will have to cut prices. Misek thinks there’s little chance PC makers (Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL), among them, I would imagine) will have competitive tablets this year, “due to their dependence on Taiwan ODMs for notebooks.” (Though I would note HP’s CEO Leo Apotheker this morning touted the company’s upcoming “TouchPad” tablet.)
Misek thinks tablets will, indeed, cannibalize PCs, as the survey his firm conducted shows that “production” tasks, such as writing, editing, creating spreadsheets, and editing photos, are done as much on a tablet as on a PC, meaning the tablets are not just for content “consumption,” in his view.
Misek thinks Apple will remain the dominant supplier by a wide margin this year, commanding 64% of tablet shipments, which will make up 20% of Apple’s revenue this calendar year. Research in Motion (RIMM) will have just 1% share this year, and Motorola Mobility (MMI) will have just 2%. Apple next year may hold 41% of shipments, RIM, 1%, and MMI 3%, he thinks.
Misek does not project tablet cannibalization figures, besides saying cannibalization is already evident in Q1′s PC numbers (Again, see HP’s report this morning and some of the commentary from Citigroup.) He argues that developers are already shifting resources to tablet and smartphone software development, which is easier, he opines.
He expects PCs will become servers of a sort, but that they will also adopt various technologies of tablets, and he projects Apple using chips based on ARM Holdings (ARMH) designs in its MacBooks as soon as 2013, a bit of speculation that has been rampant of late.
Two big developments that go hand in hand with tablets, in Misek’s view, are the rise of “super data centers” that will “bring cloud-based services and media to the masses,” and also a surge in wireless and wireline broadband traffic well ahead of current estimates as mobile video becomes “a significant drive of bandwidth usage.”
Perhaps the most suprising element of the consumer survey, Misek notes that China has by far the strongest interest in purchasing tablets, with consumers surveyed in that country suggesting an 80% interest in purchasing tablets, versus just over 40% in North America, 50% in Europe, just under 50% in the Middle East, and about 65% in Asia-Pacific.
Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily